DeVonta Smith (PHI) – 2025 FF Outlook: concise, data-driven notes

- Role in 2025
  - Likely WR2 behind AJ Brown; primary CRUNCH will come from slot/versatile usage (Moore’s scheme favored Smith in 2023 with high slot share).
  - Expected target share roughly in the 18–24% range if Brown and Goedert stay healthy; volume hinges on Eagles’ passing attempts, but history shows Smith functions best when all three key pass-catchers are healthy.

- Floor vs. Ceiling (2025)
  - Floor: 9–12 PPR points/week with 6–7 targets most weeks; 10–12 points in low-volume games. XFP-based floor is higher when the offense remains balanced but not pass-heavy.
  - Ceiling: multiple 14–18 PPR point weeks possible; weeks with 5–7 receptions and 70–90+ yards are plausible in a pass-friendly week; occasional 20+ point spikes if game script or target share spikes.

- 2024 Context (why the outlook is nuanced)
  - 3-way healthy span (Smith, Brown, Goedert) yielded about 5.7 T/G and ~42.3 receiving YPG for Smith in 2024 (low TDs, lower volume overall).
  - When all three were healthy in 2023, Smith averaged ~6.5 targets/G, ~52.8 YPG, 4 TDs (better fantasy output). 2024’s reduced pass attempts (26.4/game) limited ceiling.
  - 2024 XFP: Smith ranked ~50th among WRs; efficiency was decent but volume was the bottleneck.

- Market/ADP & Draft Strategy
  - ADP context from the analyzed notes places Smith around WR26 with ~69.9 overall ADP (roughly 6th round in 12-team, PPR).
  - FF Hound stance leans toward targeting high-floor players; Smith fits as a stable floor option with weekly upside, but he isn’t a slam-dunk ceiling choice.
  - If you’re chasing ceiling early (weeks 15+ upside), Smith is a secondary option behind true WR1s. If you’re prioritizing floor to anchor a weekly lineup, he’s a solid midround pick.

- Risk factors to monitor
  - Pass-volume trend: Eagles leaning run-heavy could cap weekly floors/ceilings.
  - Health of Brown/Goedert: his target share is directly tied to the presence of Brown and Goedert.
  - Offensive scheme changes: Moore’s usage could push Smith into more slot-heavy routes, which could boost efficiency but is not guaranteed to increase volume without increased pass attempts.

- Why he’s still playable in 2025
  - Contract-year incentive could lift effort and consistency.
  - Slot usage potential and scheme fit suggest continued efficiency when targeted.
  - In balance, he’s a reliable WR3/FLEX with weekly upside when volume aligns and the offense stays reasonably pass-oriented.

- Weekly/ matchup notes
  - Favorable in games with pass-heavy scripts or when the Eagles are trailing and forced to pass more.
  - Tougher weeks against elite corners or when Brown/Goedert demand the targets; minimal week-to-week boom-bust volatility if volume stays steady.

- Bottom line
  - 2025 expectation: a steady, mid-to-low WR2/floor-leaning WR3 with occasional spikes. Broken down: ~6 targets per game when all three main pass-catchers are active, ~10–12 PPR points on average, with 14–18 PPR-point weeks possible in favorable game scripts.
  - Draft approach: late 6th round value is reasonable; don’t reach for him aiming for ceiling weeks alone. Best-fit role is as a reliable, steady contributor with weekly upside when the offense flows through him via slot usage and healthy surrounding weapons.