 Hunter Henry (NE, TE1) – 2025 outlook notes

- Role and floor
  - Locked in as NE’s primary TE in 2025 with Drake Maye at QB; minimal proven competition for targets at TE.
  - 2024 baseline: ~6 targets per game when Maye/Williams connected; Henry was a go-to option for Maye in the offense.
  - Ground floor expectation: 5–7 targets per game, 50–75 receiving yards weekly ceiling not guaranteed; solid PPR floor barring a sudden WR takeover.

- Sexiness/ceiling
  - In best-ball and mid-to-late round TE targets, Henry is viewed as a safe floor with weekly usable upside, not an elite ceiling option.
  - TD upside exists: he’s listed among “Receiving TD Positive Regression candidates,” implying potential TD upticks in 2025.
  - 9-TD peak in 2021 shows a ceiling if NE red zones schemes favorable and Maye targets in the end zone.

- 2025 sentiment signals (Reddit-driven)
  - Strong evidence Henry is Maye’s preferred TE target: across Maye starts, Henry led the receiving corps in targets per game, receiving yards, first-read target share, and expected fantasy points per game.
  - Positive regression chatter: multiple posts flag Henry as a candidate for increased receiving TDs.
  - Comparisons vs other TEs in the range (Ertz, Pitts, Freiermuth): Henry often viewed as safer floor with decent weekly upside; ceiling considered higher than some veterans in the same tier.

- Workload and efficiency context
  - Team-into-efficiency data ranks Henry as solid but not elite (roughly mid-tier in “TIE” metrics for TEs); he’s productive but not a target demon or explosive separator.
  - First Downs per Route Run data places him behind the very elite but still serviceable; route-running and hands are a real plus in NE’s scheme.

- Week-to-week factors and risks
  - Offensive volatility: Patriots’ weekly game plan and WR usage may tilt Henry up or down based on how quickly Maye and pass-catchers gel.
  - Competition: Perimeter pass-catchers could eat into targets if new weapons emerge; as of now, TE is the cleanest path to targets in NE.
  - Injury/roll risk minimal but real; rely on Maye’s health and offense staying pass-friendly for sustained value.

- Draft strategy implications
  - Redraft: Target Henry in a middle-tear round if you miss on early TEs; he’s a reliable TE1-floor with weekly spike potential driven by Maye and red-zone work.
  - Best-ball: A solid late-round anchor in the TE slot; pairing with Maye can boost week-to-week correlation and upside.
  - Stacking and correlation: Consider Maye+Henry exposure to maximize value if you’re built around Patriots’ pass game.

- Weekly outlook notes (actionable)
  - Week 1 streaming/early-week play: NE offense is TE-friendly early; Henry should be considered a viable plug-and-play if you’re streaming TEs.
  - Target plan: Expect 5–7 targets if the offense moves the ball consistently; look for red-zone opportunities to push TD upside.
  - If NE brings in a high-usage WR or if Maye targets shift, reassess Henry’s volume quickly; otherwise, he remains the safest NE pass-game option.

Bottom line
- Hunter Henry is NE’s clear TE1 with strong Maye-connection data supporting a steady target volume and modest weekly ceiling, plus real TD upside if regression/usage shifts hit. Realistic 2025 path: reliable weekly TE2 with weekly flex upside in favorable matchups; not a league-winner ceiling, but a dependable, controllable piece in both redraft and best-ball formats.