Isaiah Likely (BAL) – 2025 Fantasy Outlook: concise, reality-driven notes

- Role in 2025: TE2 behind Mark Andrews. Ravens added DeAndre Hopkins; Likely’s path to consistent fantasy value is via 2-TE sets, red-zone snaps if Andrews misses time, or if Hopkins underperforms. Perceived as a sleeper by some, but not a true breakout candidate while healthy and in a crowded offense.

- Injury/availability risk (major): 
  - Foot injury in camp; reports range from broken bone with 6-week return (surgery) to ankle/foot issues with later timelines. Week 1 availability is doubtful in several updates.
  - PUP/timing risk: could start on PUP if recovery drags; even when healthy, his role will be limited by Andrews and Hopkins.
  - FF Hound expert view: “foot injury makes breakout year unlikely.” Expect limited practice time and potential rest days.

- Usage expectations if healthy (range-based, context-dependent):
  - Immediate impact: low unless Andrews is out or heavily degraded; likely 2-5 targets per game in pulse weeks with limited snap share.
  - Target/touch ceiling: if active all year and integrated in two-TE sets, potentially 40-60 targets, 25-40 receptions, 250-400 yards, 2-5 TDs.
  - Red zone: Likely modest role; not a primary target unless game script or injury advantages arise.

- Production floor/ceiling (season-long): 
  - Floor (weeks 1-4 if active, otherwise limited): 2-5 points per game in PPR with tiny week-to-week upside.
  - Median-ish: around 5-7 points with occasional 8-10-point weeks in favorable matchups or if Andrews/ Hopkins flare up injuries.
  - Ceiling: 9-12+ points in weeks with favorable usage (injury to Andrews, goal-line opportunities, or Hopkins-injury games). Realistic ceiling is low unless he seizes a larger role.

- ADP/value context:
  - ADP around pick 148 (late-round TE2). Value hinges entirely on health and role; if he’s out early, value collapses; if he returns midseason and earns a slice of a target share, he’s a speculative bench/bye-week start.

- Draft/roster strategy:
  - Redraft: don't overdraft; treat as a wait-and-see stash. If you roster him, bench until health and role are established; consider him as a potential weekly streamer only in weeks with injury/absence to Andrews or if Ravens shift workload toward him.
  - Best-ball: late-round punt okay if you’re rostering depth at TE and can ride potential late-season upside; otherwise avoid.
  - Waiver-wire play: high-week 1 claim if he’s active and shows route-run efficiency; otherwise, expect a slow burn.

- Related context to monitor:
  - Ravens’ wider receiving corps: Flowers remains the top-down target; Hopkins adds another veteran target; Likely’s ceiling depends on how the offense distributes targets beyond Andrews.
  - Latent efficiency: per-route-run metric for Likely is decent, suggesting he can produce when used, but actual volume is the limiting factor given injury risk and competition.

Bottom line: In 2025, Likely is a high-risk, low-floor TE2 bet. The injury timeline and strong TE1/WR presence around him cut his immediate upside. Only invest with the expectation of sparse early-season involvement and look for late-season/spot-start upside if he reclaims a real role.