 Brandon Aiyuk (SF) – 2025 FF outlook: high risk, potential upside if healthy

- Injury status and timeline
  - Expected to start the season on PUP (min 4 games) per FF Hound; official timelines uncertain (“not anywhere close to a concrete timeline” on return).
  - ACL/MCL injury history referenced; significant rehab risk and potential for reduced explosiveness early in 2025.

- Immediate impact on SF offense
  - Deebo Samuel no longer in SF; Aiyuk’s absence compounds 49ers pass-game instability.
  - Early-season target pool likely rerouted to Jauan Jennings (and Ricky Pearsall if healthy) with Kittle and McCaffrey still central; Aiyuk’s early snaps/usage could be limited.

- Target share and role if/when healthy
  - If he returns mid-season, Aiyuk could reclaim a top-20 WR role, but expect a slow ramp and less immediate volume.
  - In his absence, Jennings saw notable target movement (historical note: 75%+ route-share games yielded ~9 targets/game); Pearsall’s injuries complicate depth.
  - Kittle remains a primary red-zone/short-area option; McCaffrey stays a major check-down/target magnet.

- Redraft ADP implications
  - Clear red-flag: injury risk and probable slow start push Aiyuk’s ADP downward.
  - Not a safe early-round pick; could be tempting as a late-round runner if he slides, but the expected weeks of absence and slow return reduce immediate value.

- Dynasty considerations
  - FF Hound fades: low long-term exposure (risk of not returning to pre-injury form soon); buy-low urgency is low.
  - If you’re rebuilding, Aiyuk is a high-risk, high-reward asset only for deep rosters with time to wait for a full recovery.

- Risk factors to monitor
  - Exact return timing, preseason workload, and any setbacks in rehab.
  - How quickly SF’s passing game stabilizes without Deebo and with a possibly limited Aiyuk presence.
  - Competition from Jennings/Pearsall for targets upon Aiyuk’s return.

- Contingency play and tactical notes
  - If you own Aiyuk in redraft, draft a reliable Week 1-4 starter/bench fill (or plan to ride waivers) in case of a fourth-game+ absence.
  - If he returns in-season, consider selling opportunities if his role is limited early (investors may overreact to a slow early return).
  - If you’re targeting SF pass-game upside later in the year, pivot to Jennings as a potential league-winner if Aiyuk misses time.

- Bottom line
  - 2025 outlook hinges on recovery pace. Early-season absence highly likely; eventual return could yield a usable WR3/WR2 with upside, but only if he regains full speed and target share after rehab. Until then, treat him as a high-variance hold/fade depending on your roster needs and appetite for risk.