Pat Freiermuth (PIT) — 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook Notes

- Role and context
  - Official depth: TE2 in PIT behind a competing TE (likely Jonnu Smith per discussion) entering 2025.
  - Steelers base 12 personnel expected to be common, which caps Freiermuth’s target share unless he dominates Red Zone looks.
  - George Pickens is gone, so Freiermuth’s target ceiling rises somewhat vs 2024, but the competition at TE is the biggest risk to floor.

- Target share and volume (Redraft estimates)
  - 2024 baseline: 15.8% target share; last 4 games at ~20%; showing ceiling when the offense feeds him.
  - 2025 projection (reddit consensus): Freiermuth’s target share is expected to be lower than the other TE (Smith), reducing floor/ceilings vs a single-TE role.
  - Core risk: 12P base → competing TE reduces Freiermuth’s target volume. Expect a split with Jonnu Smith (and possibly others) that dampens Freiermuth’s ceiling.

- Red Zone and TD upside
  - Consensus threads: Freiermuth is seen as the Steelers’ best red-zone target among the TEs, due to receiving/role in the offense and better blocking than some alternatives.
  - Jonnu Smith debate: Some argue Smith could steal RZ looks due to experience in Arthur Smith’s offense and 2-TE sets; others argue Freiermuth’s blocking makes him the more likely primary RZ target.
  - Projection range from chatter: potential 8–10 TDs in best-ball formats; 6–9 TDs more generally if workload is shared.

- Competition landscape
  - Primary concern: Jonnu Smith (and any other TE additions) could cap Freiermuth’s target share and reduce snaps. This is the dominant negative driver in 2025 outlook.
  - Other factors: Calvin Austin III remains behind Freiermuth for target share among WRs; no immediate WR1 emergence to fully compensate the TE committee.
  - Locker/odds of role: Some debate about how much Smith will actually out-snap Freiermuth, but the general tone is that Smith is a meaningful threat to Freiermuth’s 2025 targets.

- Offense and pace considerations
  - Pittsburgh offense: potential efficiency gains vs 2024, but pass volume is uncertain with 2-TE usage. Any shift toward a more balanced or run-heavy approach would hurt Freiermuth more.
  - External notes (Reddit chatter): references to Arthur Smith’s TE usage and 2-TE base in related contexts; treat as a cross-team inference rather than a Pittsburgh-specific certainty.

- Week-to-week/strategy takeaways
  - Best-ball players: Freiermuth can be a late-round flier with spike TD upside (8–10 TDs cited by some), but expect a volatile target floor due to TE competition.
  - Season-long: He’s a solid TE2 with a modest floor, contingent on locking in better red-zone usage; risk is greater if Smith dominates target share.
  - Handcuffs and trades: If Jonnu Smith is present and healthy, Freiermuth’s weekly floor drops; value hinges on red-zone role and efficiency in the offense.

- Concrete projections (rough, consensus-guided ranges)
  - Targets: roughly 70–95
  - Receptions: 40–60
  - Receiving yards: 500–750
  - TDs: 6–10 (8–9 is a plausible, realistic target in a shared-TE scenario)
  - Week-to-week volatility: higher than typical TE1s due to shared targets and 12P usage

- Immediate takeaways for draft strategy
  - If you’re punting TE and want upside: Freiermuth is a high-variance bet; best-ball value around 8–10 TDs is possible but not guaranteed.
  - If you want a stable TE2 with TD upside: Freiermuth offers some upside but you’re betting on red-zone opportunity to offset target share risk.
  If you need a safe weekly floor, consider higher-confidence TE options; if you’re targeting upside in best-ball, Freiermuth remains in play but monitor the Jonnu Smith landing and any other TE moves.

Bottom line: Freiermuth’s 2025 outlook centers on a reduced, contested target share due to a second TE (likely Jonnu Smith) in a 12-personnel base. He still has red-zone upside and a path to 6–9+ TDs, but the ceiling is clearly capped by competition and possible shifts in Steelers’ passing volume. Treat him as a volatile TE2 with boomer-bust upside rather than a safe weekly starter unless late-round TE targets dry up.