Cooper Kupp (SEA, WR2) – 2025 outlook vibes from Reddit + FF Hound notes

- Overall sentiment after 2023–24: Mixed-to-cautious. Many see “the ghost of Kupp” talk; some view him as a late-round, high-upside WR3 in a banged-up, run-first SEA offense. Others view him as washed or injury-prone and risky to roster.

- Age and health risk: 32 in 2025. Injury history (preseason hamstring issue, ankle/low-leg tweak; has not logged a full season since 2021). Regarded as high risk for missed time or reduced snap share.

- Role in SEA offense: Competing for targets with Jaxon Smith-Njigba (JSN) and Kenneth Walker’s involvement. Expected to be Seattle’s secondary pass-game option behind JSN (and possibly as a red-zone/short-area target due to Kupp’s route-running). Offense potentially more balanced/run-heavy under a revamped line, with Darnold’s quick-trigger tendencies.

- Target volume and production: 
  - Baseline projection (health permitting, realistic): roughly 60–75 receptions, 700–850 yards, 4–7 TDs.
  - Upside if volume holds or increases (improbable but possible): 75–90 receptions, 900–1000+ yards, 6–9 TDs.
  - Note: His historical efficiency has regressed since 2021; recent FD/Route-Run metrics place him middle-of-pack rather than elite, suggesting limited big-play upside without volume.

- Efficiency/usage signals (from Reddit/data):
  - Last season: WR22–WR23 in PPR-pointing formats (moderate fantasy output, not elite).
  - First Downs Per Route Run (2024): around mid-pack; not the elite efficiency of 2021-era Kupp.
  - “Top-5/Top-20” finishes are not a given; regression risk is real with age and a new QB (Darnold) in a different system.
  - Some threads push back on “washed” claims, arguing he can still produce as a late-round WR2/WR3 with upside if used similarly to earlier Spike Weeks.

- QB/ scheme context:
  - Sam Darnold as starter; offense likely quicker throws and more deposits to multiple receivers, but not a high-volume passing attack.
  - New OC/run-first tendencies may cap air yards and overall targets vs prior Rams years.
  - JSN’s slot-heavy usage could squeeze outside targets; Kupp’s role may lean more as a precise route-runner/short area option.

- Risk factors to monitor (actionable flags):
  - Health fragility: expects maintenance of snaps but misses are plausible; benching plan if Week 1/2 looks limited.
  - Target competition: JSN’s presence could cap Kupp’s target ceiling; red-zone target share uncertain.
  - Offensive line/quarterback stability: any slide could depress overall passing volume.

- Draft strategy / where he lands in drafts:
  - Considered a “sleepers” style pick in NFC West contexts; often valued as a late-round WR3 with upside, but the ADP reflects risk (not a safe WR2). If you’re chasing upside, he’s a lottery ticket; if you need steadier week-to-week points, he’s riskier than typical WR3s.
  - Best fit: combined with a solid early WR1/2; use him as a benchable upside option rather than a weekly starter until Week 4–6 shows role clarity.
  - If your roster has durability/volume risk, he’s a good late-round dart throw only if you’ve built a sturdy core elsewhere.

- Best-case vs. worst-case paths:
  - Best-case: health holds, JSN demands attention, Kupp runs a high-percentage route tree, 75–90 catches, 900+ yards, 6–9 TDs; weekly flex upside in favorable matchups.
  - Worst-case: frequent minor injuries, limited target share behind JSN/Darnold’s distribution, 50–60 receptions, 700 yards, 3–5 TDs; weeks 12+ becomes washouts.

- What to watch in 2025 weeks:
  - Week 1–4 target/share trend vs JSN; if Kupp remains a low-volume decoy, downgrade him.
  - Red-zone presence: if TDs crater, that’s a major red flag for value.
  - Health reports and practice status early in camp/preseason; any prolonged injuries push him from late-round value to avoid.

- Bottom line:
  - Realistic floor: low-end WR4 to mid WR3 in bad health/limited volume years.
  - Realistic ceiling: solid WR3 with weekly spike weeks if volume and health cooperate.
  - Actionable move: treat him as a volatile, high-variance pick; don’t anchor your core on him; target him only if your build already provides iron-clad depth and you’re willing to chase weeks where he’s involved.