Anthony Richardson (IND) 2025 fantasy outlook — concise, Reddit/FF Hound-informed notes

- Starting status impact
  - FF Hound leaning: Daniel Jones named the starter over Anthony Richardson for Colts’ 2025 offense.
  - Implication: AR’s fantasy value largely tied to whether he remains the starter. If he’s not, he’s a high-risk bench stash; if he starts, he has genuine rushing upside but limited passing floor.

- Offensive context with DJ starting
  - Pass-catchers: Josh Downs and Tyler Warren are big winners with DJ under center; Downs is a prime target in training-camp reports.
  - Running back: Jonathan Taylor benefits from a more stable offense and fewer QB-design TD vultures.
  - AR’s presence: If AR isn’t the starter, his rushing ability is largely moot for the Colts’ immediate 2025 fantasy output; a DJ-led offense reduces AR’s ceiling.

- AR’s fantasy profile (when he’s the starter)
  - Strength: Elite rushing potential gives spike-week upside (multiple 60+ rushing yards games and rushing TD upside possible).
  - Weakness: Extremely questionable passing efficiency; deep-ball attempts and overall accuracy are flagged as major drawbacks.
  - Durability/track record: Red flags about long-term health and consistency (30 games across 6 years cited in chatter).
  - TD dynamics: Vulture tendency on goal-line rush TDs for a mobile QB is a real consideration; with DJ starting, this upside likely diminishes.
  - Ceiling vs floor: High ceiling if he starts and maintains the rushing workload; low floor if he’s not the Week 1 starter or if his rushing volume is capped.

- Data-driven sentiment from FF Hound
  - 66. Colts Offense (Daniel Jones): Jones starting boosts Downs/Warren and stabilizes the offense; Taylor gains floor.
  - 483. ⬆️ Daniel Jones: DJ ranked over AR in Superflex; AR is not the preferred pick in that format.
  - 565. 📉 Colts QBs (Deep Passing): Both QBs (DJ and AR) are near dead last for deep targets; expect short-to-intermediate passing game with limited big-play upside.
  - 224. 💜 Josh Downs: Downs cited as favorite target for both AR and DJ; his value is solid in either scenario, especially in DJ’s offense.
  - 590. 📉 Anthony Richardson: Overall negative signal on AR’s 2025 outlook in the FF Hound framework.

- Key discussion points to watch
  - QB job security: Camp and coach quotes will determine if AR wins/holds the job; DJ starting heavily depresses AR’s value.
  - Target distribution: Downs and Warren likely to be highly targeted with DJ; AR’s rushing will matter for ancillary upside but not for stable weekly production.
  - Deep passing ceiling: Both QBs’ deep-passing outlook is poor; plan for consistent short-to-mid yardage with limited long plays.
  - Red-zone design: AR’s rushing TD upside could be a swing factor only if he’s the starter; DJ starting reduces that path.
  - Injury/durability risk: AR’s medical/injury history remains a concern; plan for weeks-to-weeks handcuffing.

- Dynasty vs redraft tailwinds
  - Dynasty: AR still holds immense upside due to rushing ability and age; keep as a high-upside stash.
  - Redraft: In 1QB, very risky; in Superflex, still a late-round lottery ticket with the caveat that DJ starting would crush his value; use only as a high-risk, late-round dart.

- Draft strategy recommendations
  - If AR is named starter by Week 1: treat as a high-upside QB2 with weekly spike potential; draft late, pair with a safer QB, and monitor camp notes for job security.
  - If Daniel Jones starts: AR should be drafted as a speculative stash only; don’t rely on him as a Week 1 starter; target Downs/Warren as safer Colts pass-catchers; consider Jonathan Taylor as a safer floor option.
  - In 1QB leagues: avoid early AR exposure; consider him only in the very late rounds as a lottery pick.
  In Superflex: place AR in the 12th–15th round range as a high-variance upside option; be ready to pivot to DJ or another floor QB if AR loses the job.

- Bottom line
  - Realistic stance: AR is a high-variance asset whose value hinges on starting status. The prevailing sentiment in the Reddit/FF Hound data is that Daniel Jones starting would materially dampen AR’s 2025 fantasy prospects, with Downs and Warren as the predictable beneficiaries and deep passing a persistent de-emphasized trait. If AR remains the starter, he carries immense rushing upside but still faces durability and passing limitations; if not, he’s a weak redraft asset with limited short-term upside.