Concise 2025 outlook for Brock Purdy (SF) — QB1/backup in SF, depending on format

- Overall role and value
  - 1QB leagues: mid-range starter at best. Likely a QB2 option you tolerate behind a top-8 QB.
  - SuperFlex/2QB: solid QB2 with true upside; value is in waiting on QB and still landing a high-floor passer.
  - ADP signals: around QB13 in many formats; sleepers/value around 52.2 (sleeper ADP) with strong upside if offense stays clean.

- Why the upside could be real
  - FF Hound projection: Mike Clayuffs Purdy for top-tier passing yardage (first/second in the league by some projections) — huge upside if that hits.
  - Preseason trust and mechanics: strong offseason chemistry with Shanahan; demonstrated accuracy on anticipation routes.
  - Offense is quarterback-friendly: SF routinely supports high passing volumes in big games when game script allows; Purdy has shown efficiency in this system.

- Why the floor is relatively safe (compared to other sleepers)
  - High-quality offensive structure: Shanahan offense, CMC utilized heavily (healthy CMC tends to keep SF efficiently scoring and scoring opportunities flowing).
  - Proven comfort with key weapons when healthy: Kittle, Ayuk and others remain efficient targets; Purdy has already shown they can produce with him in the mix.
  - Floor from consistency: even with some target-tree volatility, SF’s offense typically sustains a reasonable ceiling for Purdy as a passer.

- Key risk factors and caveats
  - Receiving corps volatility: Deebo Samuel departure and injuries to Ayuk/Jennings/other coverage pieces could shrink target depth and big-play opportunities.
  - JuJu Jennings/Jones/Jennings contract/hold-in scenarios: any instability there can disrupt Week-1 chemistry and rhythm.
  - Checkdown tendency with CMC: more checkdowns and higher green-light checks when CMC is healthy could dampen pure passing ceiling and big-play upside.
  - Schedule/defensive volatility: while the offense is strong, any string of adverse matchups or injuries on SF can cap weeks.
  - Mobility/health risk modest: Purdy isn’t a rushing threat like a true dual-threat; rely on passing volume more than rushing for fantasy value.

- Draft/roster strategy implications
  - 1QB leagues: target Purdy in the middle-to-late rounds if you wait on QB; he’s a risk-managed pick with upside rather than a land-the-elite-QB target.
  - SuperFlex/2QB: pair Purdy with a true elite QB1 or stack him with a high-floor QB2; he’s a strong buy as a back-end starter in this format.
  - Auction/value angle: he’s listed among undervalued QBs; consider him as a low-cost QB2 with potential high return.
  - Contingency planning: have a clear plan for Week 1 if SF’s receiving corps isn’t fully healthy; you may need to pivot to a different offense if circumstances deteriorate early.

- What to monitor in offseason/up to draft
  - Injury/availability updates for Ayuk, Deebo, and Jennings; incidence of holdouts or contract disputes.
  - Any reports on SF’s pass-heavy game scripts in camp; early preseason efficiency metrics.
  - CMC usage trends in August/September; if CMC dominates touches, expect more short-area throws and checkdowns.
  - Mike Clay or other credible projections confirming Purdy’s passing-yard outlook; a top-2 passing-yard projection would materially boost his fantasy case.

- Bottom line
  - Purdy is a high-floor, mid-range QB2 with legitimate upside if SF’s passing volume remains strong and the receiver group holds up. He’s best deployed in 2QB/SFlex formats or as a wait-on-QB target in 1QB leagues. Be prepared for weeks where his ceiling is capped if Deebo/Aiyuk aren’t healthy, but he carries hidden upside if the offense clicks and the high-yardage projection materializes.