Here are concise, actionable takeaways for Jaxon Smith-Njigba (JSN), SEA WR1, based on the Reddit threads and FF Hound analysis.

1) 2025 fantasy outlook (core range)
- Baseline expectation (most likely): ~110-125 targets, ~65-75 receptions, ~750-900 yards, ~5-7 TDs; ~12-14 PPR points per game.
- Upside scenario (high-end but plausible): ~140-170 targets, ~75-90 receptions, ~900-1,050 yards, ~7-9 TDs; ~15-17 PPR PPG.
- Floor scenario (beware): ~90-105 targets, ~50-60 receptions, ~550-700 yards, ~3-5 TDs; ~10-12 PPR PPG.
- Ceiling if deep usage materializes: Big weeks when aDOT is higher; potential multiple 100+ yard games with a multi-TD week if scheme frees him for outside routes.

2) Key drivers and risk factors
- Target share and volume
  - 176 targets vacated with Metcalf/Lockett departure creates a direct path to a large early-year target share for JSN.
  - FF Hound notes JSN as Seattle’s biggest offensive threat; even in a run-focused scheme, 12-15 targets per game were discussed as a plausible high-end outcome (useful for upside but not guaranteed).
- QB and scheme
  - Darnold in Klint Kubiak’s system: historically efficient when protected; 2024 metrics showed strong WR value when in a stable system.
  - Seattle’s O-line improved but remains a risk; durability and time to develop chemistry with Darnold matter.
  - Per FF Hound, Darnold’s efficiency and the Vikings-like OC approach could yield solid WR production, but uncertainty remains relative to 2023 Jets Darnold.
- Supporting cast and alignment
  - Kupp’s addition changes target dynamics: he could take some outside/area targets, potentially limiting JSN’s ceiling in some weeks.
  - Tory Horton and other WRs in the room add real-world competition for snaps/targets, though JSN is viewed as the primary mismatch and focal point.
- Role and usage
  - JSN is primarily slot-oriented, but the offense may use him around on short-to-intermediate routes with upside on deeper targets if the offense deploys more outside work.
  - The “boom/bust” dynamic depends on aDOT and how often Seattle attacks deep versus underneath; higher aDOT could produce bigger weeks.

3) Sentiment and consensus points from the chatter
- Mixed but leaning toward JSN being a legitimate fantasy asset in 2025 if he maintains slot-based control and benefits from vacated targets.
- Some caution due to: Kupp’s presence, an uncertain O-line, and Darnold’s unknowns in Seattle.
- Several posters view JSN as a “breakout candidate” or “top target” in the offense, but others see risk from the surrounding changes and prefer safer targets or later-round alternatives.

4) Draft strategy implications
- Where to draft
  - Likely in the late 2nd to early 3rd round range in 12-team PPR formats, depending on how offense is priced and how confident you are in Seattle’s target distribution.
  - If you miss on him, consider alternatives with clearer Week-to-Week floor but without as much upside risk (depends on your build).
- Pairing and roster construction
  - Pair JSN with a safer high-floor WR (early-round) to balance his boom/bust potential.
  - Be mindful of Kupp’s ADP and injury risk; if Kupp’s role looks more limited or more limited by time on field, JSN gains more ceiling.
- Trade/waiver considerations
  - If early-season usage looks underwhelming due to O-line issues or conservative gameplans, be prepared to pivot after Week 1-3.
  - Monitor Tory Horton and other SEA receivers in-season for emerging role changes that could siphon targets.

5) Quick red flags to watch
- O-line health and overall protection in early games.
- Darnold’s performance consistency in Seattle’s system; any regression could cap JSN’s ceiling.
- Kupp’s role: if he becomes a clear target monopoly, JSN’s weekly floor/ceiling could both move down.
- Any shift toward an even more run-heavy game plan that suppresses pass volume.

6) What would tilt judgment (actionable signals)
- Positive: Darnold looks comfortable early, JSN is clearly Seattle’s target share leader, and a couple of 8-12 target games emerge with multiple catches and 70+ yard weeks.
- Negative: O-line struggles persist, Kupp dominates outside targets, JSN’s Week-to-week targets hover around 6-9 with limited ceiling weeks, or Darnold’s efficiency dips markedly.

Bottom line
- JSN is a high-upside, probabilistic target in a Seattle offense undergoing major changes. Expect a solid PPR contributor with a realistic path to mid-range WR2 numbers if the target share holds and the offense performs efficiently. Realistic expectation is a safe WR3 with weekly upside in favorable matchups; be ready for boom weeks but brace for weeks with quieter box scores if volume or efficiency dips.