Concise 2025 fantasy outlook and discussion points for Rashid Shaheed (NO, WR2)

- Role in 2025
  - Primary deep threat and field-stretcher behind Chris Olave; likely the Saints’ third receiving option in practice (Kamara in mix as a pass-catcher, Olave as alpha).
  - Path to steady week-to-week fantasy value is volatile: strong weeks come from big plays, not consistent volume or chain-moving catches.

- Target share and efficiency signals
  - 1D/RR (First Downs per Route Run) metrics suggest Shaheed does not move the chains consistently; career 1D/RR roughly 9.6%, 6.3%, 7.0% vs a top-tier ~13% (e.g., St. Brown). Indicates a lower floor in PPR, with ceiling tied to splash plays.
  - YPRR profile is strong (comparable to elite in some measures), but that isn’t translating to consistent, high-volume production.
  - In 2025, expect limited target volume unless Olave faces injury/gaint target share opens for Shaheed or Tyler Shough/N.O. offense creates more multi-route involvement.

- Health and durability
  - 2024 injuries were a factor; preseason notes indicate Shaheed had limited run in games he was active.
  - Ongoing injury risk adds downside to any late-round or Best Ball exposure.

- Offensive/quarterback context
  - Saints’ offense expected to lean pass-heavy with new OC Kellen Moore-style concepts, but the quarterback situation is unsettled (rookie Tyler Shough projected, with mixed rookie-start potential).
  - OL and run game constraints could keep Shaheed as a secondary/spot-start option rather than a reliable weekly scorer.
  - If Shough hits early and Shaheed earns more route diversity, he could unlock more weekly upside; otherwise, he’s a boom/bust play.

- ADP and draft position
  - Shaheed often being drafted around WR55–WR60 (Best Ball ADP ~131–133 range). He’s a typical late-round swing for upside, not a core reliable asset.
  - In redraft, treat as a high-variance bench/spot-start; in Best Ball, roster him as a weekly upside WR3 with clear spike-week potential.

- Floor vs. ceiling
  - Floor: low, given 1D/RR concerns and limited target concentration behind Olave.
  - Ceiling: spike weeks on big plays, potential for some top-30 weeks if the offense supports multiple pass-game options and Shough develops chemistry.

- Risk flags and why you should care
  - 1D/RR underlines a lack of consistency; weekly floor is unreliable unless target share expands.
  - Rookie QB uncertainty and potential for a pass-heavy-but-inefficient Saints offense to cap overall volume.
  - Injury history and preseason health status add risk to any investment that requires weeks of consistent production.

- FF Hound / Reddit sentiment snapshot
  - Some chatter elevates Shaheed as a dark-horse WR2/WR3-type upside candidate (dark-horse WR1/WR2 discussion threads); others emphasize the stability risk from 1D/RR and the Olave-centric target funnel.
  - Expert notes highlight Shaheed as part of a “behind Olave, outside of Kamara” group in a rougher Saints offense outlook; still discussed as a dark-horse target in some pieces due to big-play upside.
  - Training-camp notes show limited run ahead of Olave/Kamara, which tempers immediate optimism.

- Bottom-line guidance for 2025 drafts
  - Do not rely on Shaheed as a stable weekly WR2/WR3; treat him as a high-variance depth piece with weekly upside capped by Olave target share and rookie-QB risk.
  - Best-ball managers: stash for spike weeks; monitor camp reports and early-season usage for any route-tree expansion.
  - Redraft managers: draft only if you’re chasing late-round upside with a clear waiver-wire fallback; avoid using a high draft capital on him as a weekly starter unless Shough/OL play noticeably better and Shaheed earns more route versatility.

Key discussion points to watch after training camp and early preseasons
- Does Shaheed earn more consistent route-tree usage and 1D/RR improvement, or does he remain primarily a top-off-the-scrimmage deep threat?
- How quickly does Shough adapt, and does the Saints’ pass volume translate into half-decent target shares for Shaheed?
- Does Olave’s target share shrink or stay dominant, and how will Kamara’s involvement as a receiver influence Shaheed’s weekly ceiling?