 Jake Ferguson (DAL, TE1) – 2025 fantasy outlook and takeaways

- Role and offense context
  - Dallas’ TE1 with Dak Prescott is a stable, mid-range option in a pass-happy offense.
  - Extension: 4-year, $52M deal signals long-term trust and role security.
  - Historical usage with Dak: about 5.3 targets per game in 2024, plus solid YAC and red-zone involvement; without Dak, targets drop notably. So Ferguson’s value is tightly tied to Dak’s presence and Dallas’ passing volume.

- 2025 projection (floor vs. ceiling)
  - Floor: roughly 75–90 targets, 40–60 receptions, 450–650 yards, 3–6 TDs. Expect roughly 6–9 PPR points per game in a lower-end week, with occasional spike weeks.
  - Ceiling: 85–105 targets, 50–70 receptions, 500–700+ yards, 6–8 TDs. In a best-case, fully healthy, high-volume pass year, plus goal-line looks, Ferguson could flirt with low-end TE1 weeks.
  - PPR expectation: steady, not explosive, with modest upside if the offense leans on TEs in the red zone and in 2-TE sets.

- Draft strategy and where he fits
  - ADP typically around TE16 entering 2025 drafts; not a top-tier target unless you miss the elite TEs.
  - FF Hound guidance aligns: unless you land a top-3 TE, Ferguson is a viable late-round anchor with upside in a pass-heavy offense.
  - Ideal build: pair Ferguson in mid-to-late rounds with a rookie tight end (Tyler Warren or Colson Loveland in later rounds) to balance upside and reliability.
  - If you miss top TEs, Ferguson is a solid pivot (instead of reaching for mid-tier TEs). Don’t chase him early; you can still get a reliable weekly floor.

- Sentiment and read from Reddit FF community
  - Broad consensus: Ferguson is a dependable, volume-based option in a favorable offense.
  - Some chatter about him being part of a “pairing strategy” for a balanced TE corps; others view him as a safe mid-round pick with steady target share in 2025.
  - In-season value is tied to Dak’s health and the Cowboys’ overall pass distribution; leagues that overweight pass attempts boost his floor.

- Key risk factors and caveats
  - Target competition: Lamb remains the clear focal point; 2nd TE targets depend on offensive scheme and game plan.
  - Offense could shift week-to-week; any reliance on TDs makes him sensitive to red-zone opportunities.
  - Injury/health: Week-to-week camp notes show he's generally healthy, but any setback to Dak or offensive line could dampen volume.

- Quick actionable takeaways
  - If you’re chasing top-tier TE upside, Ferguson is not your first pick; if you miss, he’s a strong fallback with solid floor.
  - Target ranges: consider Ferguson in rounds where you’re loading other positions; avoid drafting him as an early TE1.
  - Stacking/roster plan: if you’re rostering a rookie tight end later, Ferguson serves as the stable veteran anchor; don’t over-stack at TE.
  - If you like a guaranteed floor and you’ve built around Dak, he’s a reasonable weekly starter with upside in a pass-heavy year.

- Bottom line
  - Ferguson is a realistic, dependable anchor in DAL’s offense for 2025 with Dak; solid mid-round value, modest ceiling, and best used as part of a TE pairing strategy or as a safe floor option if you miss the elite tiers.