Concise, Reddit-informed 2025 fantasy notes for Jonnu Smith (PIT, TE1)

- Core takeaway
  - 2025 role is high-risk, low-volume TE1. Past 2024 production was an outlier; don’t project a repeat unless PIT signals heavy TE usage. Expect him to be a low-end TE1/very solid TE2 at best.

- 2024-2023 context (why the caution)
  - 2024: 88 receptions on 111 targets for 884 yards and 8 TDs. Huge season that isn’t typical for a tight end, especially given his prior years.
  - 2023 (Atlanta): ~50 receptions, ~582 yards, 3 TDs – more modest, closer to baseline.
  - 2022 (Miami): 32/362/3 – shows he can be productive when targeted, but not necessarily at 100+ targets every year.

- High-confidence data points shaping 2025 outlook
  - The Dolphins’ 2025 backfield plan implies most of the offense’s pass targets go to backs/WRs; the note emphasizes Achane “potential for 100 targets” and that Jonnu doesn’t need a large target share to be valuable.
  - The explicit line: Achane should lead and be the primary target within that offense; Jonnu is not expected to command a large share on his own in that system.
  - In other words: Jonnu’s 2025 production is not expected to be driven by a heavy target share unless his role in PIT expands beyond typical TE1 responsibilities there.

- PIT-specific implications (relative to the “TE1” label)
  - Competition: If PIT deploys multiple-tight-end sets or features Freiermuth-style targets, Jonnu’s target share could be squeezed.
  - Glimpse of upside: If he emerges as the clear primary pass-catching TE in PIT, he could approach 60–75 targets with a chance at more red-zone looks than typical TE2s.
  - Realistic role: More likely to sit in the 50–70 target range with 40–60 receptions, 450–700 yards, and 4–7 TDs, depending on how aggressive PIT is with TE utilization.

- Production projection (conservative to moderate)
  - Targets: 50–75
  - Receptions: 40–60
  - Receiving yards: 450–700
  - TDs: 4–7
  - Ceiling if usage spikes (injury/ER play): could push toward 6–9 TDs and 70–80 receptions if he becomes a primary safety valve.

- Draft/adoption strategy
  - Redraft: Treat as a late-round TE2 with a shallow path to weekly viability; don’t draft expecting weekly boons unless camp reports show a clear elevated role.
  - Best-ball: Moderate hold (benefits if he lands a few huge weeks; less risk if he flares in a handful of matchups).
  - Exposure: Don’t overpay; a reasonable target range is late-rounds or in the 12-teamer TE2-adjacent zone.

- Weekly-start considerations
  - Start him when PIT’s matchup and game plan lean toward volume for TEs (e.g., poor WR/nickel coverage, favorable red-zone scenarios).
  - Bench if PIT shows a heavy WR-driven offense or if reports indicate reduced TE usage or a shift to other options.

- Key risks to monitor
  - PIT pass volume and offensive scheme changes in 2025.
  - Camp and preseason notes on his role vs younger TEs or other receiving options.
  - Injury history and age (entering 30 in 2025) relative to durability for a mid-Tier TE.

- Quick comps and sentiment cues
  - Safe comp range: a high-variance TE2/low-end TE1 depending on role (think mid-range Evan Engram/Darren Waller-type upside if volume surges; otherwise closer to a streamer).
  - Reddit sentiment: skeptical about repeating 2024; prudent to assume a more modest, role-dependent floor with limited week-to-week upside unless role expands.

Bottom line
- Jonnu Smith in PIT is a conditional upside option: viable as a late-round pick or a season-long bench stash, but not a weekly anchor unless he earns a clearly elevated, stable pass-catching role. Expect 50–75 targets, 40–60 catches, 450–700 yards, 4–7 TDs with upside if he emerges as the key TE in PIT.