Geno Smith (LV) – QB1 2025 Fantasy Outlook: Extremely concise, action-focused notes

- Role/ Situation
  - Confirmed starter for Raiders in 2025; expects to be the Week 1 QB1 and hold the job.
  - Offense likely more balanced/run-focused than 2024 Seattle, with Ben Johnson-era efficiency cited in some discussions and a heavier ground game under Carroll/Kelly.

- 2025 sentiment from Reddit/FF Hound data
  - Positive but cautious: Geno is viewed as a safe, reliable weekly producer with a real floor, and he has “overperform” buzz in some community threads.
  - ADP-driven lift: Geno’s presence has boosted surrounding players (notably Meyers) in community projections; he’s considered a mid-round QB with solid weekly floor.
  - Target competition/lierarchy: Brock Bowers (TE) and Jakobi Meyers (WR) are the primary beneficiaries; Bech/Jeanty and other weapons could cap ceiling for any single pass-catcher. Some discussions imply Bowers will be a primary target, which could siphon some of Meyers’ volume.

- Key upside/downside factors
  - Upside
    - Efficiency and familiarity with high-percentage throws can keep weekly upside modest-to-solid even with a run-heavy tilt.
    - If the Raiders integrate Bowers effectively and Meyers remains healthy, Geno can sustain mid-to-high-end QB2 production with weekly streamer/top-12 ceiling in good matchups.
  - Downside/Risk
    - Team likely to lean run-first at times; passing volume could be lower than 2024 Seattle, capping ceiling.
    - Target competition (Bowers, Meyers, and other pass-catchers) may dilute weekly peaks and limit spike weeks.
    - 2025 Raiders offense uncertainty (coordinators, scheme tweaks, line play) adds variance.

- Expected statistical range (2025, realistic, consensus-oriented)
  - Pass attempts: roughly 520–580
  - Passing yards: around 3,800–4,200
  - Passing TDs: approximately 28–34
  - Interceptions: roughly 10–15
  - Rushing: modest, 0–70 rushing yards with occasional short rushing TDs (not a major rushing upside)
  - Week-to-week floor/ceiling: steadier floor than elite QBs; ceiling swings on game scripts and pass-volume volatility.

- Draft/adoption strategy
  - Where to draft Geno: late 1Q/early 2Q of drafts in 1-QB leagues; solid QB2 with weekly floor; in 2-QB/superflex he’s a stable top-12 option.
  - Pairing targets: pairing Geno with a high-upside WR (or Bowers if you believe in the multi-TE/WR spread) can maximize weekly points; avoid overloading on pass-catching options who could siphon each other’s targets.
  - Risk management: be prepared for some weeks where the Raiders lean run and Geno’s volume shrinks; have a contingency plan (stream/plug-and-play options) for tough matchups.

- What to monitor in camp/news
  - Bowers integration: any early reports showing how quickly Bowers becomes a primary target and red-zone factor.
  - Jakobi Meyers health/volume footprint: if Meyers remains a target hog, Geno’s weekly ceiling could be more conservative.
  - Offensive line/run-game efficiency: any signs the Raiders sustain a stable or improved rushing attack to support play-action and efficiency.
  - Coaching signals: any explicit shift toward pass-heavy game plans in favorable matchups.

- Bottom line
  - Geno Smith in 2025 is a solid, high-floor starter with limited downside relative to typical mid-tier QBs. He’s boosted by a competent supporting cast, but his ceiling is tempered by a likely run-first tilt and competition for targets. In 1-QB, treat him as a reliable QB2 with some top-12 weeks; in 2-QB/superflex, he’s a steady QB1 option worth targeting alongside high-upside WRs/TEs.