Tyler Warren (IND) – 2025 Fantasy Outlook (TE1 assumed)

- Role and usage signals
  - Camp/preseason: has been a near-full-time starter, playing 34 of 35 snaps with the first-string offense across two preseason games; lined up in multiple looks (including backfield and 12-personnel). Strong indicator he’s the Colts’ primary rookie TE target.
  - Catching profile: noted for good catch-at-point, especially vs. zone; athletic, versatile mismatch creator. Colts intend to feature him in various alignments.
  - Target potential: early camp reports floated 100+ targets for him as a rookie if the offense passes enough. That ceiling hinges on QB stability and overall offensive volume.

- QB/offense scenario
  - Jones starting boosts passing volume and target ceiling for Warren (and Downs). If Richardson wins, Warren can still be usable but with more QB volatility and a potentially lower floor.
  - Colts pass-game context: offense could be efficient but is not historically stable; the monitoring point is QB accuracy and the O-line/up-front conditions. Jones start = clearer path to targets; Richardson path = more volatility.

- Competition and target landscape
  - Key teammates: Josh Downs emerging as a slot/high-target guy; Michael Pittman Jr. has injury risk (noted 70% injury risk in some analyses); Adonai Mitchell could contribute in year 2. Warren’s role adjacent to Downs in early 12P formations could push him into high-volume targets if usage stays broad.
  In practice: Warren’s volume is likely high for a rookie TE, but actual target share will depend on how Indy uses him in red zone and short/intermediate routes.

- Strengths and risk factors
  - Strengths: elite size-speed profile for a rookie TE; versatile usage in multiple alignments; positive preseason indications of being a focal pass-catcher.
  - Risks: QB stability (Jones vs Richardson), overall Colts’ offensive efficiency, and competition for targets from Downs and Pittman. Red-zone reliance could cap TD upside if the offense stalls in goal-to-go situations.

- Draft strategy and roster approach
  - FF/Hound guidance: Warren is a valuable later-round TE target when you’re waiting on the top TEs; pairing him with a reliable veteran TE (e.g., Ferguson, Kincaid, Goedert tier) can balance upside with a safer floor.
  - ADP/spot: expect Warren to sit in the late rounds (roughly TE12–TE20 territory in many mocks). Don’t reach; treat him as a high-upside flier with a reasonable floor if Jones starts and the offense stays productive.
  - Best-ball stance: high upside in single-season best-ball leagues; consider him as your late-round “board-stater” with a potential spike week upside.

- Floor versus ceiling
  - Floor: moderate to solid if Jones starts and targets are distributed to Downs/Warren; still behind the clear WR1s in Indy.
  - Ceiling: top-8 TE range is possible if the Colts unlock the passing game, usage stays aggressive in 12P packages, and Pittman’s injury risk materializes; talent alone gives him a legitimate path to 100+ targets in an offense that supports multiple pass-catchers.

- What to watch in-season
  - Target share and routes run in early weeks (especially red-zone and inline vs detached usage).
  - QB stability and how often the Colts pass in that particular week.
  - Indiana’s red-zone efficiency and whether Warren is a first read or more of a secondary option.
  - Any shift in Downs’ role that could siphon targets away from Warren.

- Bottom-line takeaway
  - If you’re chasing late-round upside at TE and can tolerate QB/Offense risk, Warren is a compelling dart throw. He’s showing starter-level usage in camp, and a Jones-led offense gives him a feasible path to meaningful targets. Pair him with a safe veteran TE to minimize risk. Don’t overpay; treat him as a high-upside breakout candidate rather than a sure thing.