Justice Hill (BAL) – 2025 fantasy notes and takeaways

- Role in 2025
  - Primary Ravens complement to Derrick Henry. Training Camp Week 3: Hill is clearly ahead of Keaton Mitchell, who sits as the 3rd RB; Henry, Hill, then Mitchell.
  - Described historically as a “very good change-of-pace back” with efficiency when used, suggesting a stable but limited ceiling unless volume climbs.
  - Keaton Mitchell could siphon some touches, but Hill remains the clearer 2nd-back in most gameplans.

- Expected workload and scoring profile
  - Likely 8–12 carries per game with a handful of targets in the pass game (floor-ish PPR flex option if Henry is healthy).
  - Ceiling hinges on Henry’s health; if Henry misses time, Hill’s workload could spike and he becomes a legitimately high-end RB2/low-end RB1 in that scenario.
  - In a balanced backfield, Hill is more of a floor-friendly piece than a weekly ceiling risk unless Baltimore leans heavily on Mitchell.

- Draft sentiment and strategy
  - Not a target in 10-team leagues; better value in 12-team or deeper formats as a late-round flier or handcuff/backup.
  - In dynasty/keeper leagues, Hill’s value persists as long as he’s in BAL and healthy.
  - Monitor camp reports on Henry’s durability and Mitchell’s utilization; shifts in those can cap or boost Hill’s value quickly.

- Risks and red flags
  - Keaton Mitchell presence could cap peak Week-to-Week upside; Mitchell is the clear wildcard if he earns touches.
  - Derrick Henry’s age/injury risk remains the biggest leverage point for Hill’s upside.
  - Ravens offense volatility or game plan changes could dampen Hill’s output even with a steady role.

- What to watch (barometers)
  - Health and workload distribution in preseason/early season games (Henry vs Hill snap/carry split).
  - Mitchell’s role in Week 1/early games; if Mitchell eats into third-down/short-yardage, Hill’s ceiling could drop.
  - Any shift in Ravens’ game plan that increases Hill’s involvement as a receiver.

- Takeaway for 2025
  - Baseline: steady RB2/flex if Henry stays healthy; modest ceiling.
  - Upside: becomes a strong RB2 if Henry misses time or if Mitchell doesn’t absorb enough work.
  - Actionable move: draft Hill as a safe late-round RB with contingency on Henry’s health; roster him as a potential flex with equity in deeper leagues.