Trey McBride (TE1, ARI) – 2025 outlook, sentiment, actionable notes

- Overall verdict
  - High-floor, high-ceiling TE1 candidate; clear value over Brock Bowers in many drafts due to Arizona role and ADP value.
  - Projections: ~105 receptions, ~1,100 yards, ~6 TDs (PPR-friendly). McBride’s TD expectation edge helps close any gap vs Bowers on points.

- ADP and value positioning
  - ADP: mid-late 2nd round (roughly picks 16–29.9). In practice, often priced similarly to early 3rd round in some mocks.
  - Relative to Bowers: McBride ~1 full round later in some spots but offers a comparable ceiling with higher reception volume; safer path to top-TE1 production in PPR.
  - FF Hound view: McBride and Kittle are solid 2nd/early 3rd round values; Bowers sits earlier in the 2nd. For value, McBride often favored over Bowers if you’re prioritizing TE1 upside with less draft capital spent.

- Usage, efficiency, and role
  - Route share: McBride ~87% (elite for TEs); top-tier usage and on-field presence a year after breakout.
  - Target quality: Arizona’s alpha option at TE; high-volume, predictable target share reduces the risk of acompetition-driven drought.
  - Comparatives: Kincaid’s 68.3% rookie route share is notably lower; Bowers sits around 80%. McBride’s workload stands out as a differentiator.

- Relative to Brock Bowers (and the Raiders run-heavy concern)
  - McBride’s path to production is more stable given Arizona role; Bowers faces potential volume squeeze in a run-heavy offense and unknown target competition.
  - Projections suggest McBride’s higher receptions help offset TD regression, and his higher expected TDs keep him competitive vs Bowers in overall points.
  - Risk tilt: Arizona offense stability (QB, OL, schedule) vs hypothetical Raiders’ offensive shift; McBride’s floor remains solid due to route share and role.

- Risk factors and caveats
  - Team volatility: ARI’s offense and quarterback situation could cap upside if efficiency dips; any shift away from pass-heavy game plan hurts.
  - TD regression: McBride’s TDs may regress from elite levels, but projected 6 TDs still keep him in the top tier if receptions stay around 100+.
  - Draft strategy sensitivity: If you’re chasing running backs/wide receivers early, McBride’s value asymmetry can be leveraged by taking him in the 3rd, but his 2nd-round price is justified by workload.

- Draft strategy recommendations
  - If you want a guaranteed high-floor TE1 without overpaying for Bowers: target McBride in the 2nd if he’s affordable; don’t panic if he slides to the 3rd—you’re not losing much value.
  - If your build is RB/WR heavy and you’re comfortable gambling on upside: McBride in the 3rd (per FF Hound “best value rounded 3”) is acceptable, given the elite route share and role.
  - Stacking considerations: pairing McBride with a high-volume ARI WR could be beneficial if the offense rebounds; otherwise, treat him as a standalone anchor for your TE slot.

- Bottom line
  - McBride is the safer, high-floor TE1 target with elite route share and strong 2025 projections. He offers similar or better upside than Bowers in a more favorable ADP window and a clearer path to heavy target volume. Reserve him as a core TE asset in rounds 2–3, leaning toward 2nd if you want to secure top TE production without overpaying for Bowers.