Derrick Henry (BAL) – 2025 Fantasy Outlook — Extremely concise, Reddit-informed notes

- Role overview
  - Locked-in RB1 in Baltimore’s backfield; primary early-down rusher with heavy goal-line usage.
  - Pass-game usage likely modest; not a sought-after target despite Baltimore’s weapons.

- 2024 baseline you can bank on
  - High rushing-volume driver; 16th in PPR points per game last season (strong floor).
  - 8th-highest scoring non-QB; proven efficiency in Ravens’ system.

- 2025 sentiment snapshot
  - Positive signals: unchanged workload profile and team context; multiple Reddit takes cite Henry as a clear fantasy RB1 given his “king will still cook” type role.
  - Caution signals: age/wear-and-tear; backfield competition (e.g., Jordan Mason mentioned as a high-yardage producer in the same span); DeAndre Hopkins and Mark Andrews/ Hopkins addition could affect overall offense balance but not necessarily Henry’s touchdown upside.
  - TD upside remains a hot topic; some posters project potential for 20+ rushing TDs if Ravens sustain a heavy rushing TD share.

- Key discussion points from sources
  - ADP/value debate: Sig Bloom’s STACKED league pick places Henry earlier than typical due to perceived immediate value; suggests Henry trades positional efficiency for early-round certainty in a stacked format.
  - TD regression vs. TD upside: one thread argues for positive regression on rushing TDs (and potential for more due to Ravens’ rushing-heavy profile), while others acknowledge regression risk if passing game evolves.
  - Backfield dynamics: Mason’s recent production cited to indicate backfield competition could bite into Henry’s touches; however, Henry remains the primary early-down option.
  - Opponent considerations: Ravens’ offense upgraded with Hopkins/Andrews; could improve overall offense efficiency but may limit Henry’s goal-line carries if other goal-line options emerge.

- Expected 2025 usage profile (actionable assumptions)
  - Usage: Heavy rushing attempts, consistent red-zone opportunities; TD upside likely higher than most non-RB1s.
  - Receiving: Limited targets; rely on him as a steady floor RB1 in standard leagues, less appealing in strict PPR unless massive goal-line volume translates to more receptions.
  - Week-to-week: Safe fantasy floor in the mid-to-high teens in standard leagues; volatility if the Ravens lean more pass-heavy or if health/slate reduces goal-line chances.

- Draft strategy takeaways
  - In standard formats: target as a solid RB1 with a high TD ceiling; value around mid-to-late first or early second depending on league format.
  - In PPR: still viable as an RB1 due to workload, but expect diminished weekly ceiling vs. pass-catching backs; contingency plan if you miss on higher-end receivers.
  - Contingencies to monitor: Baltimore’s offensive efficiency trend with Hopkins/Andrews; any early-season split with Mason or other backs; any injury or workload management.

- Risk assessment (why it’s not a slam-dunk)
  - Age/wear-and-tear could temper long-term efficiency or lead to more management/touches split.
  - Backfield competition exists (Mason’s presence referenced); any shift in game-plan toward more passing could cap upside.
  - Team dynamics: even with a strong offense, TDs can swing with red-zone efficiency and play-calling volatility.

- Bottom line
  - Realistic: Still an elite fantasy RB1 with clear TD upside in 2025, but not a slam-dunk top-tier pick in every format.
  - Actionable stance: Target Henry as a high-floor, high-ceiling cornerstone in formats that reward rushing volume; be prepared for some weeks with quieter receiving weeks and occasional touches shaved by backfield committee or game-script shifts.