Jaylen Waddle (MIA) — 2025 Fantasy Outlook: concise, actionable notes

- Role baseline: Still the Dolphins’ WR2 behind Tyreek Hill. Expect Waddle’s target share to creep up if Jonnu Smith departs or remains out of the equation; current data show Waddle at 15.7% with Smith present, vs Hill ~20.8%.

- Target/usage dynamics (2024 snapshot to inform 2025): In a limited sample (111 plays without Smith), Hill at 30% and Waddle at 25% on those snaps, with Smith siphoning ~19% in 2024. If Smith is largely out of the mix, Waddle’s share could return toward the high-teens/low-20s, with potential spikes in weeks Hill isn’t featured as heavily.

- 2024 baseline numbers you can bank on (for context): Waddle posted solid reception totals and yardage despite Smith’s presence (roughly 104 receptions on 140 targets for ~1,015 yards and 6 TDs). Expect a similar floor if Hill remains the main target, with upside if Smith doesn’t absorb as much.

- Upside ceiling vs Hill’s health/usage: Waddle’s top-end potential rises if Hill’s target share dips (age/efficiency risk for Hill). Contingent upside if Hill’s play declines or if Miami leverages two-TE/WR looks more often; he’s not a one-week matchup winner but can deliver WR2- to low-WR1 weeks.

- Rookie/WR2 threat risk: Emeka Egbuka and other Dolphins WR2/rookie chatter imply Waddle could face competition for targets if a rookie or third receiver steps up. FF Hound and community chatter flag Egbuka as a potential WR2 risk, which could cap Waddle’s ceiling if it materializes.

- Preseason signals and sentiment: FF Hound notes multiple positive indicators for Waddle in preseason rankings; overall Reddit sentiment is favorable but with caveats around competition (rookies) and Hill’s dominance.

- Draft/league strategy implications:
  - If you land Hill, Waddle is a strong WR2 target in the late 2nd to early 3rd (depending on your league). Pairing them is feasible but can be risky if you’re light on depth.
  - If you miss Hill, Waddle remains a robust WR2 with weekly upside and a high floor, but monitor the rookie WR2 competition (Egbuka) in camp reports.
  - In leagues where Emeka Egbuka steps into a real WR2 role, Waddle’s value could be closer to a mid-to-late WR2; be prepared to pivot.

- Floor vs. ceiling risk (quick read):
  - Floor: High-end WR2 if Hill stays healthy and Smith’s role is modest; targets around roughly 110–125 with 75–95 receptions and 900–1050+ yards.
  - Ceiling: If Hill’s target share softens or Smith remains out, 120–140 targets with 80–105 receptions and 1000+ yards, 6–9 TDs possible; weekly spike weeks when Hill is neutralized or game script favors passing.

- Key risks to monitor:
  - Tua Tagovailoa health/availability and overall Dolphins passing volume.
  - Hill’s continued elite production and any decline in speed-based upside.
  - Emergence of Egbuka/McMillan or another rookie into a meaningful target share.
  - Backfield dynamics (Achane) potentially siphoning targets, though Waddle’s role should remain prominent.

- Bottom line: Waddle remains a solid WR2 with meaningful upside in 2025, especially if Jonnu Smith is out or health/usage shift favors two-primary receivers. Expect a 2025 range roughly in the 110–140 target band with 75–105 receptions, 900–1100 yards, and about 5–9 TDs, giving a credible weekly ceiling but with clear risks tied to Hill’s usage and potential rookie competition.