Below is a tight, reality-focused read on Joe Burrow (CIN) for 2025, based on the Reddit threads and FF Hound notes you provided.

Overall take
- Burrow remains a premium fantasy QB when healthy, with elite receiving support and a likely pass-heavy game script due to a Bengals defense expected to be below average in 2025.
- Sentiment is split: strong believers who will pay up for a high-floor, high-ceiling QB, and skeptics who fear ADP risk or a repeat of “must throw a ton to hit value.”
- Key leverage: Burrow-Chase stack is a standout, and Bengals’ likely shootouts increase his weekly ceiling.

Positives / why he remains valuable
- Historical reason to buy: No QB generated more fantasy offense for his receivers in 2024 than Burrow; pairing with Chase is a near-automatic positive in fantasy.
- Defense outlook: Bengals are projected to have a bottom-tier defense in 2025, which should boost pass attempts and game-script volatility in Burrow’s favor.
- Target share/channeling: Burrow’s efficiency and willingness to push the ball to his top weapons keep his ceiling high in any given week.
- Rushing floor: He isn’t a major rushing threat, but can add 15–20 rushing yards per game when healthy, providing a modest floor boost and some TD upside.

Risks / red flags
- ADP/value risk: He’s commonly grouped with top-tier QBs but priced like a true high-end 1QB1; you’re paying for historical production, not guaranteed per-week output in 2025.
- Defense-driven volatility: A bottom-tier defense increases pass volume but also game-script risk (shootouts can hinge on a single play or turnover).
- Injury/recency risk: Burrow carries injury history stigma; another major injury or a major offensive line issue could jeopardize his ceiling.
- Non-mobile profile: If rushing numbers dip or stay modest, his fantasy floor relies heavily on passing volume and TD efficiency; any regression there is costly.

Draft / roster strategy (actionable)
- Where to draft: Round 3 is realistic; he’s seen as a top-3-ish QB in most boards, but you’ll pay to secure the tier.
- Stacking: Prioritize Burrow-Chase stacks when possible. The historical alignment with Chase makes it one of the strongest stacks in fantasy.
- If you miss Burrow: Have a plan to pivot to one of the other elite passers (Jackson, Allen, Daniels) or to Jalen Hurts, depending on your board; don’t overpay just to land Burrow if the value isn’t there.
- Roster construction tip: If you’re leaning Burrow, secure reliable weapons (Chase) and build solid RB depth early elsewhere; don’t “reach” for Burrow at the expense of your positional balance.

Projected range (reasoned from the discussion, not official numbers)
- Passing volume: High likelihood of 4,400–4,700+ passing yards in a favorable shootout environment.
- TDs: Approx. 30–40 passing TDs depending on offense efficiency and red-zone success.
- Rushing: 150–300 rushing yards with 1–6 rushing TDs, contributing a useful floor in games.
- PPR fantasy points: Expect top-5 weekly upside in many matchups; floor tends to be solid if the offense is humming.

Key discussion points to watch going into 2025
- How aggressive are Bengals in keeping Burrow protected vs. keeping him in pass-friendly game plans? The balance will shape weekly ceilings.
- Do the Bengals’ receiving corps or offensive line shifts alter Burrow’s ceiling? Chase is a plus; any changes to supporting cast/OL impact consistency.
- Is the “Burrow-lite” sentiment (pushing for Purdy-type comps) influencing value perception? In most cases, Burrow’s track record and volume edge should justify the spend, but be wary of overpaying in a deep QB market.
- Preseason signal: chatter that Burrow may out-pace Prescott for passing yards in early/preseason looks is not a reliable predictor but underscores expected high-volume air yards.
- Schedule considerations: If Burrow’s early schedule features strong defenses or high-variance weeks, plan for upside weeks and potential dry spells; otherwise, expect strong early-season shootouts.

Bottom line
- Burrow is a strong, high-ceiling, high-floor option in 2025, especially if you value stacking with Chase. He’s a legitimate Round 3 target for many leagues, with upside to justify the cost in most weeks. The biggest caveat is ADP risk and reliance on a likely shootout-heavy Bengals offense due to defense weakness. If you love the Chase stack and want a QB with weekly ceiling, Burrow is a solid core asset; if you’re wary of paying top-tier price or want a safer floor from a later-round passer, be prepared to pivot.