Mike Gesicki (CIN) – 2025 fantasy outlook: concise, data-driven take

Bottom line
- Realistic role: Contingent TE1/2 in Cincinnati. Two-TE scenario (Gesicki + Noah Fant) caps floor and caps ceiling; meaningful weekly upside is tied to how Cincinnati deploys multiple pass-catching TEs and Burrow’s game plan.
- Benchability: Not a must-start weekly until volume and role stabilize. Best used as a late-round swing for 2-TE lineups or as a long-shot TE1 upside in tournaments.

Key data-driven points from the sources
- Team Independent Efficiency (TIE) TE data:
  - Gesicki: 2.51 (baseline efficiency signal for TE1/2 tier), 74.67% (high field-utilization on designed plays), 4.18 (volume-like metric), 9.89 (overall usage/points proxy). Interpretation: he’s not a top-tier separator, but he’s on the field enough to be relevant in a committee; not a lock for huge spike weeks.
- First Downs Per Route Run (FDPRR) – 2024 context:
  - Gesicki FDPRR: 0.096 (mid-pack among top TEs). Translation: decent volume efficiency but not elite at converting routes into first downs; ceiling is limited if target share is modest.
- Training Camp Week 2 notes:
  - Noah Fant signs with Bengals; Gesicki shares the field with Fant. This directly dents Gesicki’s baseline volume and makes him a back-end TE2 with upside only if he earns red-zone or seam targets.
  - Context: Bengals appear to favor multiple pass-catching TEs; fantasy value for both Gesicki and Fant hinges on how often Cincinnati lines up 2 TE sets and how Burrow distributes targets beyond his top wideouts.
- Role in 2024-5 ecosystem:
  - Gesicki has been a reasonable target in the offense, but with Fant in the mix, expect a committee approach rather than a clear leader in targets for Gesicki.
  - The Bengals’ passing game historically feeds the top weapons (Chase, etc.); TEs are more situational than volume-driven unless the offense leans into 2-TE sets.

Projected 2025 outlook (actionable ranges)
- Targets: ~60–85 targets (depends on how often two-TE formations are used and how Burrow spreads to Fant/Gesicki).
- Receptions: ~40–60 catches.
- Yards: ~400–550 yards.
- TDs: 2–5 TDs (red-zone upside exists but not guaranteed; reliant on red-zone targets in a crowded offense).
- PPR points: roughly 80–110 for the season (weekly floor in flex/TE2 range; spike weeks possible in favorable game scripts).

Pros/cons based on the data
- Pros:
  - On-field role: 74% route participation-ish signal suggests he’ll be involved when on the field.
  - Athletic profile offers red-zone and seam-match opportunities as a mismatch vs linebackers/safeties.
  - Team context provides a real chance for intermittent upside in 2-TE sets or if Fant’s usage is limited by game plan.
- Cons:
  - Volume risk: Noah Fant’s presence dilutes his floor; two-TE usage means neither TE is a slam-dunk weekly play.
  - Efficiency ceiling: FDPRR places him mid-pack among TEs, not a consistent separator.
  - Competition for targets: Burrow’s supporting cast (Chase, Higgins if healthy, etc.) will siphon targets away from TEs in many games.

Draft strategy implications
- Redraft:
  - Consider Gesicki as a late-round TE2 with upside in tournaments, not a core starter. If you miss on top TEs, he’s a reasonable swing for weeks with favorable game scripts.
  - Do not overpay in early/mid rounds; treat Fant as a complementary piece with similar risk.
- Best-ball:
  - He has some upside, particularly in 2-TE sets and in weeks where Cincinnati leans into multi-TE usage. If you’re drafting for upside, Gesicki is worth a late-round stab.
- Dynasty:
  - Gesicki is in his prime-ish years but competition in Cincinnati makes long-term upside uncertain. Value increases if the offense sticks with a clear 2-TE identity.

Key takeaways
- Gesicki is a viable mid-range TE2 with some weekly upside in Cincinnati, but his floor is limited by Fant’s addition and a likely committee-based target distribution.
- He’s not a reliable weekly TE1, but in the right matchups or in best-ball lineups, he can pop.
- Monitor camp reports and early-season target splits; if Fant’s role is minimal or if Gesicki earns red-zone targets, his upside could shift 1–2 tiers. Otherwise, plan for a volatile TE2 with occasional high-ceiling weeks.