Dallas Goedert (PHI) – 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook (extremely concise, data-driven)

- Core role and offense
  - Dallas Goedert remains the Eagles’ clear TE1 and a stable target in an offense that is trending toward more passing in 2025 (from a 2024 rate of ~41.9% pass plays; positive regression expected).
  - In 2023 with AJ Brown and Goedert healthy, DeVonta Smith’s upside was higher (11.8 FPG in 12 games). In 2024, when all three were healthy for 3 games, Smith’s fantasy line dropped to 8.6 FPG, suggesting Goedert’s presence can cap the WR3 ceiling but also anchor the offense’s tight end usage.

- Target share and volatility (limited data points, but actionable implications)
  - When Brown, Smith, and Goedert were all healthy in 2024, Smith averaged 5.7 targets per game (low for a top WR), hinting Goedert’s involvement keeps the trio crowded but still allows meaningful TE volume.
  - The three-player dynamic indicates Goedert’s volume is tied to overall pass volume and game plan; he won’t be a Davante Adams–level target monster, but he should be a reliable weekly contributor.

- Community sentiment and drafting strategy
  - Redraft view: Goedert is a preferred fallback if you miss the top 3 TEs; FF Hound explicitly calls him a viable pivot “If you miss the top three TEs, pivot to Dallas Goedert” (and mentions Goedert as a target ahead of mid-tier options like Ferguson).
  - Stacked-league signal: In drafts where you stack Eagles pieces, Goedert is a natural TE1 anchor (the TE in a “stacked” lineup).

- Draft/adp guidance (actionable)
  - If top-3 TEs come off the board, Goedert is a realistic TE1 target around the later-middle rounds; one FF Hound mention places him in the TE13 range in mock-pivot logic (behind Kincaid, Ferguson, etc. depending on board).
  - In leagues where you’re streaming or you’re in a TE-heavy build, Goedert serves as a safe floor with weekly ceiling tied to pass volume and Philadelphia’s willingness to throw more.

- Risk considerations and matchup notes
  - Upside capped by target competition with Brown and Smith; any regression in the Eagles’ passing volume or a run-heavy game script reduces Goedert’s ceiling.
  - If Hurts remains highly efficient and the offense stays balanced/not pass-heavy, Goedert’s floor remains solid but his weekly ceiling is lower than elite upside TEs.
  - Injury/health of Brown or Smith could boost Goedert’s targets, but it also means the offense tilts more to the WRs when healthy—plan for a weekly floor that fluctuates with game script.

- Key takeaways (actionable)
  - Treat Goedert as a reliable TE1 floor with tangible weekly upside in a more pass-prone Eagles offense.
  - In 2025 drafts, if you miss top TEs, target Goedert around the late rounds as a secure anchor; don’t overpay for mid-tier TEs when Goedert is available as your fallback.
  - Monitor how the offense regresses/regards pass attempts in early-season games; if Hurts and the offense unlock more passing volume, Goedert’s weekly upside increases, especially in favorable matchups.