Concise 2025 outlook for Chris Olave (NO, WR1)

- Overall verdict: High ceiling, but not risk-free. The combination of an offense with an offensive-minded coach, slot-utilization upside, and a fast-paced game script could unlock Olave’s elite efficiency into real fantasy production. Still, Shaheed’s presence and potential target competition cap the floor.

- Target profile and efficiency (from Reddit data)
  - College-like efficiency signals: Olave ranked top-spot in TDs per route run among the notable recent WRs; historic efficiency metrics (1D/Route Run, YPR, Targets per Route, Successful Targets per Route) position him as a high-accuracy, high-uptick candidate if volume improves.
  - Advanced-metrics verdict: “Rare 6th-round profile” suggests he’s undervalued relative to talent, especially if Moore’s system boosts slot targets and quick-hitting throws.

- Offensive/role context for 2025
  - Scheme impact: Kellen Moore as an offensive-minded coach could lift passing volume and efficiency; slot utilization could raise Olave’s targets per route and reduce stacked boxes.
  - Pace and game scripts: A faster Saints offense could produce more pass attempts even in negative game scripts, supporting Olave’s upside.
  - Surrounding pass-game competition: Rashid Shaheed is a real threat as a big-play option; Olave could see more slot work, but Shaheed can steal weekly ceiling with big plays. Kamara’s return/use also affects target distribution.
  - QB/quarterback stability risk: The data doesn’t lock in a single QB outcome for 2025; Olave’s fantasy value hinges on a capable, accurate passer and a pass-heavy approach.

- Red flags / risk factors
  - Competition for targets: Shaheed’s presence and Kamara’s involvement could cap Olave’s target share if the offense doesn’t funnel volume his way.
  - Injury/availability variability from 2024 context to 2025 (and potential coaching changes) could blunt upside.
  - “Ratt-Shoughed” caveat exists in the discussion; Olave’s elite college metrics don’t guarantee NFL week-to-week spike weeks in 2025.

- Draft-practical guidance
  - Where to draft: The Reddit consensus points to Olave as a low-end WR2/high-end WR3 anchor in 2025, often around late middle rounds (6th-round value commonly cited); some sources show ESPN/landmine discrepancies that imply he’s not as over-drafted as some boards imply.
  - Value proposition: If Olave falls to late 5th or into the 6th round, he’s a strong target with league-winning upside. If he climbs into the 4th, weigh the additional risk from competition (Shaheed, Kamara, outside WRs) vs. the safe floor he provides as a target monster when volume is there.
  - Build considerations: Pair Olave with a steady RB2 or a high-floor WR early; he pairs best with a robust, multi-offensive-weapon lineup where the Saints’ passing game can sustain multiple viable targets.

- Forecasted range (acting on the data)
  - 2025 floor: 95–115 targets, 8–11 TDs if volume and efficiency hold; 1,000+ receiving yards is plausible if the pace is strong and the slot role is sustained.
  - 2025 ceiling: Top-15 WR upside in strong passing games with high efficiency per target; 110+ targets and double-digit TDs achievable in a favorable scenario.
  - Most likely outcome: High-end WR3 to low-end WR2 with weekly spike weeks, depending on game script and Shaheed’s role.

- Quick strike takeaways for a draft plan
  - Target Olave when he’s around late 5th to early 7th, especially if you’re assembling a strong RB-first build.
  - Monitor camp/news on Shaheed’s role and Sean Payton/Kellen Moore-like changes; any significant gap in target share could tilt risk.
  - If you miss Olave, consider Nico Collins, Pittman, or Devonta Smith as similar-risk/return players with comparable upside in this range.
  - In full-PPR or 0.5-PPR, Olave’s value is slightly higher due to target-per-route efficiency; in standard leagues, his TD upside remains the key driver.

- What could derail the thesis
  - A markedly run-heavy or low-pass Saints offense, or Shaheed eating into Olave’s volume enough to blunt target shares.
  - A regression in QB accuracy or misalignment between Moore’s system and Olave’s role.

Bottom line: Olave is a legitimate 2025 league-winner candidate if the coaching change yields higher passing volume and slot utilization pays off, but you must accept a realistic floor risk from Shaheed and the overall offense volatility. If he falls to the late 5th/6th, pull the trigger; if he’s earlier, ensure your roster construction can withstand potential target-sharing volatility.