Very concise summary focused on realistic, actionable takeaways for Sam Darnold (SEA, QB1 in 2025 fantasy):

- Overall takeaway
  - Realistic ceiling: top-9 to top-12 fantasy QB if the offense clicks and Darnold leverages a high-end receiving corps.
  - Realistic floor: mid-to-low QB2 range (QB18–QB22) if the offense remains run-first, the line struggles, or Darnold’s inefficiencies creep back.
  - In-between reality: expect week-to-week volatility tied to game scripts, offensive line play, and how much the offense commits to the passing game.

- Supporting cast impact
  - Primary weapon: Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the clear macro-driver if he continues to develop; floor/ceiling tied to JSN volume (roughly 1100+ receiving yards and 95+ catches if the 2024 trajectory continues).
  - Veteran receivers: DK Metcalf (health permitting) remains a top target; Tyler Lockett upside if he’s still involved, but role clarity could matter with JSN emerging.
  - RB target distribution: Darnold has shown a knack for dumping off to RBs; expect usable weeks for Seattle RBs (Charbonnet and Walker) in PPR, with value leaning to the back that Darnold targets most.
  - TE usage: If there’s no elite TE in this offense, expect a modest share for secondary options; not a primary driver unless injury or scheme tweaks change the target tree.

- Offensive environment and risks
  - O-line and pressure: The Seahawks’ line concerns persist; higher pressure/sack risk can dampen fantasy output and cut TD upside.
  - Scheme fit: If the 2025 system is not perfectly aligned with Darnold’s strengths, efficiency could lag despite weapons. The upside hinges on coaching adapting to maximize Darnold’s short-to-intermediate timing and boot games.
  - Run-first tendencies: A continued emphasis on the run game could cap passing volume, limiting pure ceiling unless efficiency and big-play efficiency rebound.

- Projection range (use for planning)
  - Pass attempts/volume: Expect middling-to-high pass volume if the offense attempts more balanced or pass-driven games, but not a pure-volume monster.
  - Passing yardage: roughly mid-3,500s to low-4,000s range (contingent on JSN’s usage and O-line health).
  - TDs/INTs: a TD-to-INT balance in the teens to mid-20s TDs with single-digit or low-teens INTs if he’s efficient; riskier if the line/scheme suppresses scoring opportunities.
  - Rushing: a modest pocket of rushing yards/TDs; not a major fantasy driver but adds a floor.

- Comparative sentiment from the Reddit ecosystem
  - Upside optimism exists if Darnold is in a pro-QB system that supports his strengths and if JSN breaks out; last-year QB9-like performance is cited as a realistic ceiling in a favorable setup.
  - Caution is pervasive: questions about Seattle’s offensive unknowns, O-line constraints, and the possibility that Seattle leans run-heavy, which would suppress QB volume and reduce upside.
  - Some critics point to Darnold’s career volatility and system dependence; in other threads, his 300+ fantasy points last year are used as a cautionary benchmark rather than a guaranteed baseline.

- Betting/pivot notes for draft strategy
  - As a QB1 target: Avoid drafting Darnold as a locked QB1 in single-QB leagues unless you’re pairing him with a high-floor QB2 and you’re comfortable with volatility.
  - Tiering: Treat him as a high-end QB2 with spike-week upside; he’s a safer streamer option in matchups with softer defenses and a favorable game script.
  - Stacking considerations: If JSN is falling in drafts and you’re confident in the Seahawks’ passing volume, a late stack could offer weekly upside—but the risk is real if the offense stalls.

- Key actionable points to monitor early in 2025
  - JSN target share and efficiency in Year 2; any drop in Metcalf/Lockett usage or injury issues could tilt the offense toward JSN and Darnold’s volume.
  - O-line health and quarterback pressure stats week 1–4; early indicators will signal whether his ceiling is intact.
  - Coaching/system tweaks: any documented shifts in offensive approach (more pass-heavy scripts vs. run-first tendencies) will directly impact Darnold’s fantasy viability.

Bottom line
- Realistic expectation: Darnold can be a weekly fantasy contributor with top-12 upside in optimal conditions, but he’s more realistically a high-end QB2/streamer with a reasonable ceiling tied to JSN’s breakout and a competent offensive environment. If the o-line struggles or the offense stays run-first, he’s likely to disappoint as a fantasy QB1.