David Montgomery (DET) – 2025 Fantasy Notes (extremely concise, action-focused)

Bottom line
- RB2 with strong TD efficiency, but workload is fragile in a true committee. PPR is a downgrade due to limited receiving volume. Expect some drop from 2024’s 306 touches.

Why the signal is real
- Past usage: 306 touches in the prior season (career high) signals Montgomery can anchor the backfield when volume is there.
- Touch/carry context:
  - He faced stacked boxes far more often than teammates (Montgomery 31.4% vs Gibbs 16.8%), indicating frequent tough running environments.
  - Yards before contact: Montgomery 1.78 vs Gibbs 3.30 (Montgomery’s efficiency pipeline is more dependent on yard after contact and TDs, not high-velocity early gains).
- Efficiency metrics:
  - 2nd-highest TD rate among RBs (6.5%) and highest YPRR (2.54) among the cohort cited. Indicates strong goal-line and on-field effectiveness when used, historically favorable for TD upside.
- Receiving role: Full-PPR downgrades are warranted. Montgomery is not a primary pass-catcher; a low target share will cap upside in PPR formats.

What could change his volume in 2025
- Backfield composition: Addition of Jordan Mason suggests a lighter overall workload for Montgomery. Mason likely siphons some early-down and short-yardage work, reducing Montgomery’s touch ceiling.
- Offensive line/coach context: Mixed signals in the data. One note cites the Vikings’ OL improvements as top-5 for 2025, which would help run game efficiency; however, this is not Lions-specific and may not translate cleanly. Realistic takeaway: offensive line quality could help efficiency, but will not guarantee more total touches if Mason is involved.
- Detroit’s overall offense: If the Lions commit to a true committee, Montgomery’s floor becomes lower and his ceiling more contingent on goal-line TDs rather than volume.

Roster implications and role
- Primary role: Still the plausible early-down, short-yardage back and TD threat; not a high-volume pass catcher.
- Competition: Expect a split with Mason on early-down work; Montgomery remains the preferred red-zone back if he maintains the trust for goal-line carries.
- PPR expectations: Expect a meaningful drag. In full-PPR leagues, Montgomery’s value is notably muted versus pure rushing competitors with more receiving involvement.

Draft/roster strategy
- In non-PPR/standard leagues: Montgomery is a viable RB2 option, especially if he slides due to the Mason addition and perceived committee risk. He provides TD upside and a solid week-to-week floor when the goal-line opportunities are there.
- In PPR formats: Treat as a value plan-down; target him only if your roster construction already maximizes other pass-catching backs early.
- Trade/draft thinking:
  - If his ADP rises on perceived volume, consider selling; if it drops due to Mason uncertainty, pounce as a value RB2 with upside if the Lions lean on him in short-yardage roles.
  - Watch early-season usage: if Mason takes a clear percentage of early-down work and Montgomery still dominates in goal-line carries, value remains as a steady RB2; if Mason absorbs both early-downs and a chunk of red-zone opportunities, Montgomery’s ceiling decreases sharply.

Risks and what could derail him
- PPR drag remains real; any pullback in rush attempts or a heavy committee reduces upside.
- If Mason proves to be a strong all-purpose back, Montgomery’s touches could fall toward 10-15 per game, limiting weekly upside.
- If the Lions offense stagnates or the backfield committee stabilizes with another back, Montgomery’s TD-based upside could be the primary source of production, which is less reliable than volume-based scoring.

What to monitor in 2025
- Touch distribution: Montgomery vs Mason by game and by drive; early-down vs short-yardage usage.
- Goal-line carries and TDs; regression or sustenance of the 6.5% TD rate.
- Receiving workload: any uptick in targets or catches would boost his PPR value; lack of addition confirms the downgrade.
- O-line and offensive scheme changes, especially any impact from coaching decisions on running-back roles.
- Opponent- and game-script effects: more favorable games could spike rushing attempts/TDs; tough matchups could suppress them.

Key data points from the references
- 306 touches in the last season (career high).
- He faced stacked boxes 31.4% of the time (vs Gibbs 16.8%).
- Yards before contact: Montgomery 1.78 vs Gibbs 3.30.
- TD rate: 6.5% (2nd-highest among RBs cited).
- YPRR: 2.54 (highest among the cited RBs).
- Full-PPR: notable downgrades due to low pass-catching volume (central sentiment in FF Hound analysis).

Bottom-line takeaway
- Montgomery is a solid, low-risk RB2 in standard leagues with TD upside, but his value is fragile in PPR and even more fragile if Mason absorbs meaningful early-down workload. Treat him as a safe floor player with upside limited by backfield sharing; chase pass-catching backs in PPR drafts and be prepared to pivot if Mason carves out a larger-than-expected role.