Cade Otton (TB) – TE1 2025 Fantasy Outlook

- 2024 baseline: Finished around TE11 in standard/fantasy points; solid volume with 425 routes run. First-downs per route run (FDPR) at ~0.073 (mid-pack among TEs). Catch rate listed at ~68.0% in the discussion data.
- Efficiency vs. peers: TIE metrics place Otton mid-tier (3.34 rating; 68.02% catch rate) behind the top-tier TEs. Not a dynamic play-maker; relies more on volume than elite efficiency.
- 2025 volume risk/reward: Likely a mid-teens target range if TB’s target tree is stable; could dip or rise with offense changes. The 425-route sample from 2024 suggests he can handle a sizable workload if given opportunity.
- Injury/opportunity note: FF Hound expert item mentions Jalen McMillan (TB WR) as potentially missing season opener due to a severely sprained neck. If true, Otton could see a temporary early-season target bump and workload spike in Week 1.
- Draft/roster sentiment (Reddit/FFHound): Consistently viewed as a low-end TE1/solid TE2, not a guaranteed weekly top-12 option. “TE11/12” range is common sentiment; not worth premium late-round picks. Best as a late-round stab or robust streaming/bench option.
- Target competition and layout: No explicit guarantees on long-term target share beyond being the clear TE1 for TB, but the offense typically features multiple pass targets (see Kincaid/OTton discussion contrast). Otton’s FDPR and route volume suggest weekly floor is modest rather than elite.
- Upside/downside factors to monitor:
  - Upside: If McMillan misses Week 1 or early games, or if TB’s target distribution tilts toward the TE, Otton can post a spike week or two.
  - Downside: If TB acquires another primary receiving option or spreads targets elsewhere, Otton’s weekly floor could be inconsistent; efficiency remains average.
- Concrete takeaways for 2025 draft/roster:
  - Redraft: Target as a high-end TE2 or speculative TE3 with weekly upside in favorable matchups; don’t rely on him as a weekly TE1.
  - Best-ball/dynasty: Consider as a keystone late-round TE2 with potential modest week-to-week volatility; worth a stash if your build needs a secure TE floor with upside if a favorable TB game script occurs.
- Ground truth numbers to know going in:
  - 2024: 425 routes; ~TE11 finish (per discussed data); FDPR ~0.073; catch rate ~68%.
  - Early-season lever: Monitor Jalen McMillan status; a Week 1 absence could yield a tangible early-season bump for Otton.