Courtland Sutton (DEN) – 2025 outlook notes (extremely concise, action-oriented)

- Role and baseline expectation
  - Broncos’ unquestioned WR1 with contract security (4y/$92M). No midseason trade risk looming.
  - Payton-era offense likely to keep Sutton as a focal target, especially in the red zone.
  - 2024: finished top-15 overall; shows a viable weekly floor when the offense clicks.

- Target competition and ecosystem
  - Engram (TE) and Marvin Mims (WR2) are in the mix; Sutton remains the primary valuation anchor, but ceiling can be tempered if Engram/Mims eat a larger share.
  - Nix improved markedly in the second half of 2024; continued QB stability and offense efficiency help Sutton’s profile.

- Efficiency signals and narrative
  - First Downs per Route Run in 2024: Sutton ~0.101 (rank mid-teens among top WRs) — solid, but not an elite per-route producer.
  - Relative ceiling: Opinions vary. FF Hound and some Reddit chatter label Sutton as an underrated veteran with upside in a improved offense; others push for higher-ceiling, volatile options over safe vets.

- Draft positioning and strategy
  - ADP: around WR24 (roughly 4th round, 69.1 overall). Value is contingent on build.
  - Redraft/Draft plan: treat Sutton as a safe WR2 with weekly flex viability; pair him with a mix of early RBs to anchor your lineup. Avoid overspending for him at the 3/4 turn.
  - Best-ball: Sutton can be solid, but you may prioritize higher upside options if you’re chasing ceiling weeks. He’s less favorable in high-variance formats than some peers.

- Upside scenarios
  - If Payton’s offense stabilizes and QB play remains efficient, Sutton could flirt with top-12 WR territory, aided by target share and red-zone usage.
  - Healthy, steady production from Sutton is plausible as the offense’s reliable, day-in, day-out target.

- Risk and downside
  - Target cannibalization from Mims and Engram, plus any QB turnover/efficiency volatility, could cap ceiling.
  - Age and regression risk exist; the offense’s overall efficiency will heavily influence his weekly ceiling.

- Quick synthesis
  - Outlook: steady, reliable WR2 with weekly flex appeal; upside to be a low-end WR1 if Broncos’ passing game hits, but not a safe bet for top-5 ceiling.
  - What to monitor: Broncos’ offensive efficiency early in the season, target distribution between Sutton and Engram/Mims, and any shifts in Payton’s play-calling that skew targets.